Well, I suppose that depends on what you mean.
While I do see the distinction between saying there has been a big victory, and saying that the door has been opened for a big victory, you know damn well that what Bush was saying was “there’s been a big victory, but I don’t hold me to that”. He’s saying that for two reasons:
1. there hasn’t been a big victory (though there may have been progress)
2. he needs people to THINK there’s been a big victory
3. when it all falls apart, or there’s a massive setback, he can’t be held to the ‘big victory’
4. if it continues to move forward, he can come out and say “TOLD you there’d been a big victory”
5. the statement, at its heart, says virtually nothing.

lgf: BBC Lies About Bush ‘Claiming Victory’

This is what the relevant part of the BBC report said:

He said recent troop reinforcements had brought about “a major strategic victory in the broader war on terror”.

Surely this is more ammunition for the President’s many critics. There he goes again! They’ll be shrieking. We knew he was stupid, but this is unbelievable!

If you read the speech, however – I happened to see the excerpt in question on Hugh Hewitt’s blog – you’ll find that Bush didn’t say that at all. (If you don’t want to read the whole thing use your browser’s ‘Find’ field to search for ‘victory’ – it’s the first instance.)

What he said was the following:

The surge has done more than turn the situation in Iraq around – it has opened the door to a major strategic victory in the broader war on terror.